Budapest Dispatch #1 : covering Hungary's elections

I came to Budapest in the immediate aftermath of Hungary’s elections to understand what is actually changing—and what is not.

What is immediately apparent is a collective sense of relief and (sometimes measured) optimism. Throughout street conversations and public sentiment, the result is regarded not simply as a political pivot, but as a definitive moment, equated by some to the systemic transformation of 1990.

What is Hungary coming from

To understand the moment, one must understand the past decade.

Under Viktor Orbán, political power penetrated society. Control was not only institutional but also social, shaping media, economic access, and daily routines.

This was accompanied by:

• increasing polarisation and “enemy-based” narratives (migrants, Soros, Brussels, now Ukraine)

• growing social tensions and emigration, including rampant segregation, particularly of the Roma, the biggest minority group

• and a progressive weakening of institutional independence

Interviewees highlighted a central irony: the leader who in 1989 called for the Russians and Soviet army to leave has now allowed Russian espionage to influence election strategies.

At the same time, the economic picture deteriorated.

According to senior economic and academic sources, Hungary has faced near-stagnation since 2020, combined with cumulative inflation significantly above that of EU peers—around 57% interannual, roughly double that of comparable countries.

Policy uncertainty, currency volatility, and structural vulnerabilities have compounded these pressures.

Why did society choose to change

The election result reflects a convergence of factors.

Economic strain played a role. But equally important was a growing perception of relative decline, including benchmarking with neighbouring countries.

At the same time, a symbolic shift occurred.

Péter Magyar, emerging from within the previous system, positioned himself as both insider and challenger. His approach differed from previous opposition efforts:

• direct engagement across the country

• ability to reach disillusioned voters

• and a message that change was possible through democratic means

This approach activated new social dynamics, especially among the young and disengaged.

According to Professor Iulius Rostas, currently in exile in Berlin, what happened in Hungary can be considered a political revolution.

To illustrate the before-and-after impact, the democratic movement secured respect for the election results. The Tisza party fielded many volunteers who, the day before and during the elections, monitored rural communities, where votes were reportedly bought or manipulated, prepared to document irregularities. Their presence was so significant that previous practices could no longer proceed as expected.

The challenges ahead

The scale of the victory creates both opportunity and risk.

Economically, the situation is highly constrained:

• limited fiscal room for manoeuvre

• high interest rates and risk premiums

• and structural dependence on external factors, particularly in energy

A major issue will be reconnecting with the European Union, both politically and financially.

EU funding is seen as essential, though a conditional, phased approach requiring reforms and institutional rebuilding could be beneficial to avoid overdependence and misuse.

At a deeper level, the challenge is institutional.

Reconstructing democratic institutions, after years of co-option, requires openness, engagement, and patience.

As one observer noted, transformation operates on different horizons: months for legal change, years for economic restructuring, and decades for societal shifts.

Beyond Hungary: a broader signal

This moment extends beyond Hungary.

It reflects a broader question facing Europe and other democracies:

Can entrenched systems be transformed through democratic means?

In Hungary’s case, the answer, for now, appears to be yes.

But the next phase is more complex.

The transition from political change to institutional reconstruction will determine whether this moment becomes a lasting transformation or a temporary shift.

Dasein House perspective

This dispatch is part of a broader effort to understand how political, economic, and social dynamics intersect through direct, on-the-ground observation.

Further dispatches will follow as this picture develops.

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Dasein House

On-the-ground geopolitical intelligence

By Magdalena Mactas